Outlook and guidance

Global air traffic is expected to continue growing in 2025. However, international conflicts, global political instability and the threat of trade wars cause uncertainty in the operating environment. In particular, the risk levels related to tariffs between different countries and their direct and indirect impacts are elevated.

Excluding the direct impact of industrial action, Finnair has planned to increase its total capacity, measured by ASKs, by c. 10% in 2025. The capacity estimate includes the agreed wet leases. Finnair has anticipated its revenue to be within the range of 3.3–3.4 billion euros and its comparable operating result to be within the range of 100–200 million euros in 2025. However, based on the current information, the company estimates that the comparable operating result will be closer to the lower end of the given range, due to weaker-than-expected demand in North Atlantic traffic and the indirect effects of industrial action on demand in broader terms. In 2025, profitability is further burdened particularly by additional costs caused by the sustainable aviation fuel distribution obligation introduced in the EU, as well as rising navigation and landing charges. The direct cost impact of tariffs that will enter into force after the second quarter is estimated to be limited. It is too early to estimate the magnitude of potential indirect effects.

The estimates above regarding capacity, revenue and comparable operating result do not include direct impacts of industrial action. In total, the direct negative impact of industrial action in 2025 is estimated to be approximately 100 million euros on revenue, approximately 70 million euros on comparable operating result and approximately 5% on the total capacity, measured by ASKs. In the first half of 2025, industrial action had a direct impact of around - 72 million euros on revenue and around -51 million euros on the comparable operating result. In addition, the three days of industrial action in July and the flights cancelled for the summer season due to a temporary lack of resources following industrial action, including wet lease out flights, are estimated to negatively impact revenue by approximately 25 million euros, other operating income by approximately 5 million euros and comparable operating result by approximately 20 million euros in the third quarter. Based on the cancellations confirmed, industrial action is estimated to have a direct negative impact of approximately 5% on the total capacity in 2025, measured by ASKs.

Considering the direct negative impacts of industrial action, Finnair plans to increase its total capacity, measured by ASKs, by c. 5% year-on-year and estimates its revenue to be within the range of 3.2–3.3 billion euros and its comparable operating result to be within the range of 30–130 million euros in 2025. However, based on the current information, the company estimates that the comparable operating result will be closer to the lower end of the given range, due to weaker-than-expected demand in North Atlantic traffic and the indirect effects of industrial action on demand in broader terms.

Global air traffic is expected to continue growing in 2025. However, international conflicts, global political instability, the threat of trade wars and a tense labour market situation in Finland cause uncertainty in the operating environment. In particular, the risk levels related to tariffs between different countries and their direct and indirect impacts have increased.

Excluding the impact of industrial action, Finnair has planned to increase its total capacity, measured by ASKs, by c. 10% in 2025. The capacity estimate includes the agreed wet leases. Finnair has anticipated its revenue to be within the range of 3.3–3.4 billion euros and its comparable operating result to be within the range of 100–200 million euros in 2025. In 2025, profitability is burdened particularly by additional costs caused by the sustainable aviation fuel distribution obligation introduced in the EU, as well as rising navigation and landing charges. The direct cost impact of tariffs that will enter into force after the first quarter is estimated to be limited. It is too early to estimate the magnitude of potential indirect effects.

The estimates regarding capacity, revenue and comparable operating result do not include impacts of industrial action. In the first quarter of 2025, industrial action had a negative impact of around 31 million euros on revenue and around 22 million euros on the comparable operating result. In April 2025, industrial action is estimated to have a negative impact of around 15 million euros on revenue and around 10 million euros on the comparable operating result. In addition, regardless of the duration of industrial action, Finnair has decided to cancel 230 flights scheduled for the summer season due to a temporary lack of resources following the industrial action, which is estimated to negatively impact revenue by approximately 30 million euros and the comparable operating result by approximately 10 million euros. Based on the cancellations already confirmed, industrial action is estimated to have a negative impact of approximately 5% on the total capacity in 2025, measured by ASKs.

Finnair will update its outlook and guidance in connection with the 2025 half-year report.

Global air traffic is expected to continue growing in 2025. However, international conflicts, global political instability and a tense labour market situation in Finland cause uncertainty in the operating environment.

Finnair plans to increase its total capacity, measured by ASKs, by c. 10% in 2025. The capacity estimate includes the agreed wet leases. Finnair expects its revenue to be within the range of 3.3–3.4 billion euros and its comparable operating result to be within the range of 100–200 million euros in 2025. In 2025, profitability is burdened particularly by additional costs caused by the sustainable aviation fuel distribution obligation introduced in the EU, as well as rising navigation and landing charges, which will weigh on the comparable operating result especially for the seasonally low first quarter. In addition, the first quarter’s comparable operating result will be negatively impacted by the timing of Easter.

The estimates regarding capacity, revenue and comparable operating result do not include impacts of industrial action. In January 2025, the estimated negative impact of industrial action on comparable operating result was around 5 million euros.