Outlook and guidance

OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE ON 22 JULY 2026

Outlook (specified)

Global air traffic is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Finnair plans to increase its total capacity, measured by ASKs, by approximately 1%. The decrease in the capacity estimate is impacted by the cancellation of flights to the Middle East. The capacity estimate includes the agreed wet leases. The number of passengers in Finnair's own traffic is expected to grow by approximately 7% in 2026.

However, international conflicts, global political instability and the threat of trade wars cause significant uncertainty in the operating environment. In particular, the possible prolongation of the war and peace negotiations in the Middle East pose risks related to the price and availability of fuel, which, if realised, could have a negative impact on Finnair's capacity and financial result. The increase in costs related to environmental regulation also continues to burden Finnair's profitability during the year. Risks are discussed in greater detail in the section Significant risks and uncertainties.

Guidance (revised)

Finnair estimates its revenue to be 3.4–3.5 billion euros and comparable operating result to be 120–190 million euros in 2026. The guidance is based on the assumption that there will be no significant disruptions in fuel availability.

Sensitivities to fuel prices and exchange rates

Finnair's comparable operating result is sensitive to fuel prices and exchange rates. The table below shows how a 10% change in fuel prices or in the US dollar against the euro would affect the comparable operating result, taking hedges into account. Strengthening of the US dollar weakens the company's comparable operating result, while weakening of the dollar strengthens it.