Outlook and guidance

OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE ON 22 APRIL 2026

Outlook (specified)

Global air traffic is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Finnair plans to increase its total capacity, measured by ASKs, by approximately 3% in 2026. The capacity estimate includes the agreed wet leases.

However, international conflicts, global political instability and the threat of trade wars cause significant uncertainty in the operating environment. In particular, the possible prolongation of the ongoing war in the Middle East poses risks related to the availability of fuel, which, if realised, could have a significant negative impact on Finnair's capacity growth and financial result. The increase in costs related to environmental regulation also continues to burden Finnair's profitability during the year. Risks are discussed in greater detail in the section Significant risks and uncertainties.

Guidance (unchanged)

Finnair estimates its revenue to be 3.3–3.4 billion euros and comparable operating result to be 120–190 million euros in 2026. The guidance is based on the assumption that there will be no significant disruptions in fuel availability.

Sensitivities to fuel prices and exchange rates

Finnair's comparable operating result is sensitive to fuel prices and exchange rates. A 10% change in fuel prices would have an impact of 39 million euros on the annual comparable operating result, taking hedges into account. A 10% change in the US dollar against the euro, on the other hand, would have an impact of 38 million euros on the annual comparable operating result, taking hedges into account. Strengthening of the US dollar weakens the company's comparable operating result, while weakening of the dollar strengthens it. The sensitivities are determined on a rolling basis for the 12 months following the date of financial statements.